Negative Convexity

Latest — Dec 19, 2025

Today’s 2.7% CPI Release Is Nothing to Celebrate

The market and the White House are celebrating today’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which came in at 2.7% annualized inflation from November 2024 to November 2025. However, I don’t see anything to celebrate. 2.7% Is Par for the Course for 2025—and That’

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We Are Looking at a Hawkish FOMC that Won’t Cut in December

Fed funds futures overestimate December cut odds. Regional Fed presidents have turned hawkish after hearing inflation concerns from business leaders. Tariffs aren't transitory, and the Fed's suddenly worried about missing its 2% target for 5 years. Expect rates to hold.

U.S. Macro Thoughts 18-Aug-2025

U.S. macro update as of August 18, 2025: dollar depreciation, persistent trade deficits, a potentially dovish Fed, inverted yield curve, strong equities, and weak labor data amid inflation pressures. Political interference looms large. Markets are euphoric; fundamentals are not.

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