Negative Convexity

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Akash Kanojia

Fedwatching: Kugler on the Outlook (7 Feb 2024)

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler gave a video address to the Brookings Institute last week, sharing her thoughts on the outlook. Here are my takeaways: * Kugler struck me as marginally more hawkish than others on the FOMC. She repeated comments and phrases from several of her colleagues, stating that monetary policy

How to feel empowered when speaking with your financial advisor

Do you feel intimidated or out of your depth when you speak to your financial advisor? If yes, this post is for you. In my 93 conversations with ordinary people about emotions and finance, the theme of uncertainty and mistrust about financial advice (and financial advisors) has come up consistently.

Fedwatching: Powell on the Outlook (4 Feb 2024) and Friday's jobs report

Fed Chair Powell did a lengthy interview with 60 Minutes on Sunday. Here are my takeaways: tl;dr - the Fed isn't going to cut in March, and Powell (like almost every other FOMC voter) will be looking closely at the employment and inflation data to decide when

How to get through to someone

I had a conversation with a yoga teacher named Dalia (not her real name). This note isn't really about her story--it's about what I learned about getting through to someone who is paralyzed by fear, shame, and overwhelm regarding money matters. tl;dr--when a person can

Fedwatching: Data update, FOMC matrix for the 31 Jan 2024 meeting

Thoughts on the upcoming Fed meeting and recent data releases * There won't be any movement on interest rates at tomorrow's Fed meeting--which should be a snoozer--but Friday's jobs data will draw a lot of attention. A strong jobs report pushes the prospect of rate

The feeling of being trapped by your job

Meet Burt (names changed to protect the innocent) Burt is a software engineer, male, mid-30s, worked both in bigtech and startups. In his 20s he joined a Series A technology startup in a high cost-of-living (HCOL) area. Most of his compensation was in the form of stock options, but the

Waller and Bostic on the Outlook (16 Jan 2024, 18 Jan 2024)

Fed Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic gave speeches on the economic outlook last week. They highlighted similar themes--the positive progress on inflation so far, the uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts, and the conditions under which rate cuts could begin this year. I read Waller to be somewhat more hawkish

Where do negative self-beliefs about money come from?

One thing I hear often when I talk to people who feel blocked in finances are negative self-beliefs. These usually sound like "I'm not good with money," "I'm not good at math," "I'm not good with numbers." In

Fedwatching: Williams on the Outlook (Jan 11 2024)

New York Fed President John Williams spoke to an economic development group yesterday about the economic outlook. Here are my takeaways: * Williams won't be voting for rate cuts anytime soon. In his view, it won't be appropriate to cut rates until he is "confident that

The Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, Barkin’s Speech, and the Interest Rate Outlook for 2024

A new year, a new monetary policy update. A lot of people have been asking me “when” interest rates will return to “normal” levels rather than the “high” levels they are currently at (NB: interest rates are not high right now by historical standards). Everyone seems to think it’s