Negative Convexity

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Akash Kanojia

A Look at Recession Indicators – 6 Aug 2024

With Friday’s soft jobs report and the subsequent selloff in stock markets, market pricing now implies over 150 basis points of cuts from the Federal Reserve over the coming year. The Fed would only cut rates that much if we see a significant slowdown in economic activity (I think

A Mindset that Doesn’t Serve You: Luck is Something that Happens to Me

Even though bad things happen to everyone, we harm ourselves when we default to seeing ourselves as victims of circumstance. The victim mindset robs us of agency. When we recognize that we never can lose total agency, we transform ourselves from victims to powerful agents of change.

Discipline and Working for Yourself

A salaried job provides fear of punishment as a powerful motivator to work. A self-employed person lacks this top-down, fear-based motivator. In the absence of fear, a person can tap into pride, excitement and anger as alternative fuel sources for action.

The Mentality of Creating Luck

Luck isn't entirely random. People who consistently get "lucky" have a mentality around putting themselves into situations where good things might happen to them, and being prepared to take advantage as those opportunities arise.

The Two Fears that Underlie Market Manias

This note is about the emotions that underlie market manias. I wrote it as a companion note to yesterday’s piece on the stock market. Something about the human emotional experience changes when people gather into groups. Actions that people would never undertake alone (e.g., mob violence) suddenly become

The Stock Market is Overvalued: A Bond Market Perspective

U.S. stock markets are overvalued, with a duration of 75 at current levels. The refinancing cliff hasn't hit yet, which is likely to pressure earnings.

Lifting the Floor vs Raising the Ceiling

I had a conversation recently with a performance coach named Chris Doherty. Chris works with junior golfers to help them improve their game, some of whom have gone on to be D-I athletes and PGA tour players. Chris said one thing to me that stood out to me in that

Why It is Your Moral Duty to Charge More Money (Part 2)

In Part 1 of this post, I discussed how the feeling of financial insecurity can be mapped to simple math—a person who feels financially insecure does not have much of a cushion. For many people, the best way to increase your cushion is to bring in more money, and

Why It is Your Moral Duty to Charge More Money (Part 1)

This note is split into two parts due to length. Part 2 will be published next week. -- I recently had two emotions & finance conversations with women who are hourly solopreneurs—one is a yoga teacher, and the other is a licensed therapist. Both came into the conversation feeling

How Your Scarcity Mindset is Actively Blocking You from Abundance

Having a scarcity mindset prevents you from committing to specialization. Specialization leads to abundance, in ways that you can't predict or expect.