Two weeks ago, I wrote about the idea that what we consider to be luck or random chance is a matter of framing. Some people believe that they can create luck, by maximizing their preparation and the number of shots they take. Others believe luck is something that happens to them.

In today’s note, I make the argument that which of the two mindsets you hold is a deliberate choice, and the latter mindset is actively harmful to you.

Luck Is Something that Happens to Me

Let me start by saying that it’s possible that luck, specifically bad luck, is something that happens to us and we have no control over it. For example, getting hit by a drunk driver at 3pm on Thursday during your normal commute to the grocery store in a typically safe area with broad daylight really is bad luck. Random stuff like this does happen in the real world.

But most of the random negative things that happen to us aren’t quite this random. Getting hit by a drunk driver on Saturday night at 3am following the local college football team winning a rivalry game is not quite the same as the grocery store example.

And in the emotions & finance context, I’m talking about stuff that’s even less random than this. Let’s say you had a critical client pitch your consulting firm had to win, and you lost it. Or you applied to a job, and were rejected. Or you made a big investment, and interest rates shifted in a way you didn’t expect and your trade tanked. Is any of this stuff luck?

I don’t think it matters. And the reason comes down to mindset.

The Victim’s Mindset

I define “victim mindset” as the belief that the bad things that happen to us are largely due to forces outside of our control.

To be clear, I am not making a value judgement about whether this belief is true or not. Clearly, the grocery store example is pretty unforeseeable, and most people would agree it’s bad luck. I’m saying that in 95% of cases, it does us no long-term good to hold this belief.

In my view, when we hold this belief, we implicitly give up our agency. When the default assumption is, something happened, but it’s not my fault, we take away from ourselves the chance to ask if there is something we could have done better.

To be clear, there are benefits to having a “victim mindset”! It protects our feelings by attributing to divine malice, that which we could attribute to our own inadequacy, inaction, or incompetence.

Obviously, feeling inadequate, inactive, and incompetent is not pleasant. But for what we gain in terms of short-term avoidance of pain, we lose in terms of the long-term opportunity cost of not transforming ourselves into adequate, active, and competent people.

Blaming yourself (whether true or not) at least gives you the chance to imagine that the outcome could be different next time if you improve yourself, whereas blaming the outside world robs you of that.

Moving Towards Adequacy, Action, and Competence

Sometimes waiting and patience can be good. But most of us take too little action. I want to develop a bias towards action for myself (and for you).

The important thing to realize here is that there is always an action we can take, and sometimes it’s as small as a deliberate thought in the mind. I sometimes think of Kobe Bryant, holding his daughter’s hand in the final moments, as the helicopter was spiraling towards the ground. Even in that moment, as the victim of the worst possible bad luck, unknowable, hardly foreseeable, Kobe had choices and actions he could take. In his last few moments on Earth, with certain death staring him in the face, what thoughts would he choose to think? What final words would he say to his daughter? Even in that moment, Kobe was not purely a victim. In the final seconds before death, he still had agency.

For me, there’s power in feeling that I always have a move left to make, a card left to play. I am never totally out of options. And the vast majority of circumstances in our lives are not life and death situations, so there almost always will be a next time. Even if I got unlucky this time, can I do better next time?

And ultimately, everything comes down to how I want to feel. One mindset will help me to feel powerful, capable, resilient—indefatigable. The other mindset will help me to feel helpless, hopeless, vulnerable—a victim. It’s my choice.

Which one do I want?

Exercise

Journal on the following or discuss with a friend.

1)      Inquiry

Where in my life do I see myself as a victim of circumstances outside of my control?

2)      Thought experiment

If you had an answer to #1, tell yourself that you accept the belief that you are a victim in that part of your life. It’s important, for the time being, to accept and validate the belief you already hold. If you feel angry or otherwise upset at yourself for holding that belief, that’s fine. The good news is that we are able to change our beliefs and you will eventually get to the beliefs about yourself that you want.

Now the thought experiment:

If I saw myself differently, in that I do have some amount of agency instead of as a victim of circumstances, what actions would I take?

3)      Action

What if I go take the action?

It doesn’t matter if the action is hopeless or useless! The point is that we are training ourselves to become people of action. In order to become people of action, we need to practice.